What you will find here
A riddle. I am on every page here, but I keep to the top and will
not follow you down, so hurry past and we will never meet. Ask me once and I only change
the light. Ask me twice and I will show you something no one has seen in a lifetime.
Four separate pieces of work, each answering a different question. They
come from different sources and they are deliberately never added together.
The core list
Species the IUCN Red List has been unable to categorize, or has not yet
assessed, ranked by how narrowly restricted the published record says they are.
If a species here turns out to be in trouble, this is where you would have seen
it first.
Described, then forgotten
Reptiles, amphibians, birds and mammals named by science since 2015 that
still carry no extinction risk assessment. Nine in ten of the reptiles and
amphibians are known from a single country. New ones join the queue every
week.
Missing, not gone
Species nobody has confirmed alive in over a decade, and in some cases for
centuries, that nobody has been able to declare extinct either. Half of them have
not been seen since the 1960s.
Proof it can be done
Species found again, gathered as they are reported. This is the hopeful part.
Most species that go missing are still out there, and some of them turn up
because one person went and looked.
The part worth holding on to
A species being missing is not the same as a species being gone. Of the lost
species that researchers have traced, roughly a quarter are thought to be genuinely
extinct. That is a grim number read one way and a remarkable one read the other,
because it means most of them are alive and simply unvisited.
Some have been unseen for two hundred years and then turned up in a stream nobody
had surveyed. One was identified from a photograph a tourist posted online. The
work is not hopeless. It is just unfunded, and pointed at the wrong places.
Who is actually working on them?
We wondered whether anybody was, so we checked. Our sister project
Connect &
Conserve maps every conservation organization it can find and what each one
says it works on, and we pointed it at all eight thousand species here.
Sixty three came back. Not sixty three percent, not sixty three
hundred. Sixty three species, out of eight thousand, have any organization anywhere
that names them. For every species with somebody's name attached, 127
have nobody at all.
And the money follows the same shape. Ray-finned fishes are half of the Black List, by
far the largest group of species nobody can categorize, and per species they receive
roughly a sixth of what mammals do. Birds carry barely one percent of
that burden and are funded better than fishes on every measure. None of this is anyone
behaving badly. It is what happens when attention follows what people already know the
names of.
We thought the deck was stacked: a frog described in 2019
usually has no common name yet, so nobody can search for it. So we found 1,878 of
the missing names and ran the whole search again. Nothing moved. These species go
unmentioned in English exactly as thoroughly as they go unmentioned in Latin.
What would it cost to just go and look?
$5Mruns the whole Red List for a year
3¢of every $100 US conservation raises
7 monthsof that budget clears every Data
Deficient vertebrate
The whole Red List, every group, runs on roughly five million dollars a year,
against about $16 billion the US conservation sector took in
during 2022. The one instrument the entire field uses to decide what is
endangered is a rounding error on it. That is a bargain and an embarrassment at
the same time.
Here is the number nobody has published. There are
8,659 Data Deficient vertebrates on the Red List,
and at workshop rates, looking at every one of them comes to about
$2.9 million, seven
months of the Red List's own budget. And it would not be a shot in the
dark: where the record already pins a species to one small area,
56% came back threatened when IUCN looked again,
against 21% for the rest. Fifteen of twenty
seven, so read it as a direction and not a decimal.
The caveat we will not bury: that per species cost traces to
one unpublished personal communication from 2013, and of the
3,031 Data Deficient species on our own list,
1,210, four in
ten, have been assessed more than once and come back Data Deficient every
time. Money spent on looking is not money spent on finding out. Budgeting from
these numbers starts at the methods page.
What would actually help
Five things, and none of them need a degree. Tell somebody about these species.
Photograph anything you cannot name. Ask the people who decide where conservation
money goes to include them. Support the groups already doing this work. And if you
know a group of animals or plants well, help build the records that do not exist
yet.
How to help